Digital Telecommunications and Networks Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Digital Telecommunications and Networks - Essay Example In the signal amplification of analog systems, noise is amplified with the analog signal. Thus, the signal-to-noise ratio deteriorates for each time an analog signal is amplified. Digital regenerators, on the other hand, reproduce an entirely new digital signal from a sample noisy digital signal. The signal-to-noise ratio of this new digital signal has the same signal-to-noise ratio as the original signal. Thus, digital signals can be transmitted over longer distances than analog signals. Pulse Code Modulation is simply digitally coding analog signals. It consists of sampling analog information signals and then converting them to a serial n-bit binary code for transmission over a physical medium. With PCM, each code has the same number of bits and requires the same length of time for transmission. The presence or absence of a pulse within a specific time slot indicates either a logic condition of 1 or 0 respectively. Wayne Tomasi, in his book Electronic Communications Systems, outlined how a simplex PCM system is integrated in telephony: An analog input signal passes a band pass filter which limits it to the standard voice-band frequency range of 300Hz to 3000Hz. The sample and hold circuit periodically converts samples of the analog input signal to a multilevel Pulse Amplitude Modulation (PAM) signal. The analog-to-digital converter (ADC) converts these PAM signals to parallel PCM codes. These parallel PCM codes are then converted to serial binary data in the parallel-to-signal converter. Finally, the serial binary data are then outputted onto the transmission medium as serial pulses. At the receiver's end of the transmission medium, the serial pulses pass through the serial-to-parallel converter. The digital-to-analog converter then converts parallel PCM codes to parallel PAM signals. Finally, the hold circuit which is a low pass filter, converts parallel PAM signals to the original analog sig nal (408). Time Division Multiplexing is the transmission of information from multiple sources to one or more destinations using the same facility but at different transmission times. The following are the fundamentals of how Time Division Multiplexing is integrated in telephony as summarized by Wayne Tomasi: In a 2-channel PCM-TDM system, each channel's input is sampled and then converted to an eight-bit PCM code. While the PCM code of channel 1 is transmitted over the transmission medium, channel 2 analog input signals is sampled and converted to a PCM code. And when the PCM code of channel 2 is transmitted, it is channel 1 that then undergoes analog input sampling and conversion (453). C.) Describe the main operating principles of CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) technology and GSM (Global System Mobile) technology in mobile communication. Code-Division Multiple Accessing is a cellular telephone system based on spread-spectrum technology. It uses a unique code rather than a frequency or time assignment to differentiate users from one another. With CDMA, the base station uses

Holocaust Memorial by Peter Eisenman and Emmaly Reed Essay

Holocaust Memorial by Peter Eisenman and Emmaly Reed - Essay Example However, one believes that it should have commemorated all the affected Jews during that time, since, according to the Jewish Virtual Library, the memorial serves as a means â€Å"to preserve the memory of those who suffered† (United States Holocaust Memorial Museum par. 2) and it is just fitting to title the memorial as designed for all the Jews who suffered during the Nazi regime.One strongly believes that the Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C. saved virtually the same purpose as the museum in Berlin: to remember the Jews as a race and as one who the Germans have done injustice to, regardless of where the crimes and atrocities were committed. Unlike slavery and genocide, the Holocaust crimes were magnanimous in nature and their memory leaves an indelible mark to the lives of the remaining Jews who survived.The personal account of the experiences of Emmaly Reed could just be taken in their context since as a spectator; one could not validate the veracity and accuracy of the information that was relayed (Emmaly Reed, Holocaust Survivor). If indeed they were true, she must have suffered tremendously and that fact that she survive was a manifestation of a miracle.

Humorits Essay Example for Free

Humorits Essay Some men see things as they are and ask why. Others dream things that never were and why not†, said by George Bernard Shaw (miscellaneous quotes). In society today, many people go about with things and don’t ask why they do such matter. In the article, â€Å"Corn-pone opinions† by Mark Twain, he uses a good example: he states that â€Å"fashion has established itself: it is admired, now, and no one laughs†. In other words, fashion is created, and people go along with it and never ask why they do so. Alain de Botton argues that humorists are not to entertain but â€Å"to convey with impunity messages that might be dangerous or impossible to state directly†. In agreement, humorists play a vital role in society. As an illustration to how humorists play a vital role in society is in the article â€Å"A Modest Proposal† by Jonathan Swift, who creates a plan for eating Irish babies. Swift, is criticizing the English for their abuses against the Irish. Swift thought that eating the Irish babies would solve the â€Å"Irish problem†. However, the plan is ridiculous because it is used to describe how the Irish is being treated. The meaning thats being read in the article is that English dont value the Irish life. Instead of Swift saying so, he uses the comparison of eating babies and the abusing of Irish people. For this purpose, criticisms are being made and people dont realize them but they send a strong message. Another example of how humorists play a vital role is society is in the article ‘Corn-pone Opinions†, Twain shows another example by stating â€Å"Our table manners, and company manners and street manners change from time to time, but the changes are not reasoned out; we merely notice and conformed†. In this quote Twain tries to describe the fact that many things are changing and no one take the time to notice it; they just gone along with it. In addition, society does not realize things that is going on. They just feel that when something is being said or done that it may be the right thing so they just go along with it because they feel they need self-approval from one another and never notice that it is affecting our society.

Social Policies Poverty And Social Exclusion

Social Policies Poverty And Social Exclusion This essay will discuss Poverty and social exclusion. There will be a brief explanation of the terms that will be used throughout the essay. As we know, there are many writers who express their views; therefore references will be used to explore different writers understanding on certain subjects. Firstly it will focus on poverty and discuss different meanings in relation to poverty. Then secondly, it will look at different policies that have been an influence on poverty and social exclusion. Thirdly, it will consider all different factors that link to poverty and social exclusion. Finally, it will summarise the answer to the original question and discuss what has been covered throughout the essay. Social Policy is a subject that relates to the welfare state, human well being and other factors that influence human well being. It includes many policies relating to: housing, education, benefits and other related policies that are put in place for the welfare of state and its people. Social Policies have been changing from time to time; therefore as social workers, it is important to be up-to-date. Policies are implemented by all people: employees, workers and general public. They promote and improve the welfare state as well as human living. This will be looked at in more detail later on. The concept of Poverty can be described in two ways: the state of an individual whom may not be able to acquire the basic necessities such as: food, shelter and warmth. Another definition of poverty is when a certain part of society feels or is excluded. Blakemore and Griggs discuss that: One way of seeing poverty as relative is to say that people who have incomes below half the national average are poor (2007 p: 98). This could mean that one may have the basic necessities but lack involvement within the community, social life or living a luxurious lifestyle, which is also known as Relative poverty. It is important that society is made aware of what poverty is and the role of different Social policies that are administered to tackle poverty and related issues such as social exclusion. Social Exclusion itself is the result of poverty in most cases. One of the best definition that describes social exclusion was expressed by Child Poverty Action Group by Walker and Walker(2007): Social exclusion refers to the dynamic process of being shut out, fully or partially, from any of the social, economic, political and cultural systems which determine the social integration of the person in society. Social policies were created for the purpose of stability and equality in society. One of the main aims was to change the environment the individuals live in and to enhance their lives, through which social inclusion would be applied. Although there are different Policies, there principles remain the same throughout all administered policies, which is to promote Equality through three processes: Fairness, Equity and Equal of Opportunity. In the early 1940s, Beveridge report was put in place to reform social policy. Beveridge introduced child benefits, taxation and benefits for those who are unemployed. This was done through a weekly contribution of those who worked. It shows with admirable clarity and directness how involuntary poverty can be abolished from British social life by a redistribution of about one-tenth of the national output of goods and services in favour of those citizens whose needs are greatest (Owen, 1943, p743). Another policy that was introduced later in 1990s was The Third Way. This policy focuses on two aspects: to make work pay and to strengthen responsibility and community. It conveys the message that the reform of welfare systems is a moral enterprise that requires personal and emotional commitment by those engaged in its implementations (Jordan, 2000). This involved focusing more on means- tested benefits and provide more support to low- wage workers through a tax system. The welfare programme looks at reformation by adopting tough enforcement methods in which the public is directed towards getting trained, qualifications and employment. Bailey (2006) looks at the employment, poverty and exclusion. He touches upon the topic of welfare benefits and labour market. He discusses that Organisation for Economic Cooperation (OECD) policy statements have increased its focus on individuals having positive financial motivation to work, and move away from welfare benefits. They have introduced support through personal advisers for those who are unemployed. Also, Levitas (1998) mentions that although unemployment has had a negative impact on individual welfare, the Government argues that it is encouraging people to work, as it promotes the necessity of social inclusion through paid work. Social exclusion is the result of poverty, as mentioned earlier. However poverty is linked to many complex factors that play a huge part in peoples lives. Majority of the factors are linked to one another, this creates more of a cycle that is hard to break unless policies are not implemented. Pierson mentions that Social exclusion is a process that deprives individuals and families, groups and neighbourhoods of the resources required for participation in the social, economic and political activity of society as a whole (Pierson 2002:7). Some of the components to social exclusion are: low income, unemployment, poor housing, and poor environment. Adams (2002) discusses that the higher risk of unemployment and low pay, the more likely they are to face poverty in comparison to other population. Several people who are unemployed suffer from deprivation in many areas. For many people, employed work and its loss have great significance, since they define themselves, and achieve social status. Vast people and families do care if they earn money and provide for the family. This involves the self esteem as well as their perception of their own status. In relation to this, Adam also discusses that unemployed people are more likely to experience poverty than others, all because of their low benefit entitlement, which would disable them from social activities. Since social workers are asked to develop a critical understanding of employment policies, it is important to understand such issues that relate to unemployment. Sheppard (2006 p: 17) mentions that there are factors such as: neglect of proper care, drug abuse, crime as well as families and parents that are single and broke contribute towards excluding people socially. Those people were classed as outsiders due to the amount of inadequate socialisation. He emphasised on the fact that parents are the central and that more commitment in childcare should be made to tackle the social exclusion issue. Sheppard also includes the argument that poverty brought many excluding effect: low levels of food and nutrition, mental as well as physical poor health and not to mention deprived environments. Therefore even if they maintained their hopes and desires to enter a more socially accepted lifestyles, it would be with such great difficulty. He uses the example of a homeless person applying for benefits without an address. Payne (2006) focuses on the mental health element. She relatively talks about how Department of Health identifies mental health problems as one of the factors that influence poverty that associate with social exclusion. Payne also explores people with mental health should be included rather than excluded as social exclusion and poverty will only increase the mental ill health, therefore through this way, mental ill health could be decreased. In relation to this, strategies are set out to identify ways of getting people with mental ill health to explore the working environment; housing and community involvement, which may influence their mental ill health in a more positive way. As we can see, Social Exclusion is a widespread subject that covers many areas of Poverty. The question still arises: Are Social Policies the product of history and not logic. This essay has looked at different policies and approaches that have been made to improve the welfare state. This essay may have justified that it is the product of history and not logic. However, some may argue that Social Policies are the product of history and logic combined together. Either way, this essay surely proves that policies have been and will change from time to time for the purpose of a better welfare state.

Vidal Business Strategy Overconfidence

Vidal Business Strategy Overconfidence Introduction During the annual business plan meeting regarding the shower gel brand Vidal, it was decided for 2017 to decline the 1+1 promo quantities in an effort to achieve better profitability versus last year. From the arguments that were presented, i believe that the team has overestimated the probability for the latter scenario to happen, since the decision might has been impacted by overconfidence. The aim of this report is a) to present arguments that justify the latter, b) to detect the source of this bias and c) to recommend de-bias techniques that will be proved useful also for the future. The case Vidal, in a short period of time became the 3rd player into the segment, with a continuous growth. Last year it gained +3.5 points in terms of market share and a +30% increase in value sales. Managers pointed that the key drivers of success were: a) the great value for money product b) the highest rate of 1+1 promo intensity c) the investment on distribution and traditional advertising. The team concluded that the objective to penetrate the market was completed and there is an opportunity to achieve better profitability and ROI at the end of 2017. This could happen by a 20-25% reduction in 1+1 promo quantities. Following this strategy, managers estimated that they can retain at least last years value sales, which in combination with the lower cost of selling goods will improve the brands profitability. The greatest ally that will support the latter is products excellence and consumer loyalty. More specifically, they considered that the combination of products low price (2ndlowest) and quality is so unique, that by reducing the 1+1 promo, consumers will be directed towards the regular product. Moreover, after the distribution expansion the team estimated that the products superiority versus competition will attract new consumers. I feel that both scenarios are overconfident and their probabilities should be reassessed for the following reasons. Initially, the findings of a qualitative research indicated that Vidal is a value for money product, but still lacks in terms of packaging. Most consumers considered the packaging as old fashioned and correlated it with Private Label. Additionally, they indicated some practical issues during the usage which are capable to restrain both users experience and perceptional quality. From a quantitative perspective, it was noticed that 55% of Vidals revenues were generated from the 1+1 quantities whereas the regular product presented a sharp increase in 3 out of 5 variances, mainly because of distribution expansion and not from gaining consumers from other players. Private Labels are leaders into the segment while in 2016 presented a substantial growth. From the data report, I noticed that the second player had around -40% lower price during some periods that are not supported from their 1+1 promo wave. From the latter I suspect that they might invested in price reductions in order to constrain PLs growth since they are more expensive. As a consequence I would like to underline that: Private labels are growing significantly in a price sensitive segment. Maybe by reducing 1+1 quantities we might push our consumers towards them, since we are highly correlated and more expensive. Palmolive might has realized the threat of PL and might has adapted its strategy by offering price reductions. The initiative to reduce our investment under these circumstances might also outflow consumers towards them. I think that the team has overestimated the regular products competitive advantage compared with competition and underestimated the importance of 1+1 promo. I believe that the source of this bias is generated by the teams motivation to improve profits since its a key performance indicator for both the companys and managers growth. During this effort managers knew that is not feasible to increase investment in order to boost sales and consequently they thought about a cost reduction strategy. The initial feedback about the very good results might boosted their confidence, whereas the fact that the brand has experienced only successes might constrained them to consider alternative scenarios. In order to improve the decision making process I would like to recommend some techniques of reducing overconfidence. The first is related about the importance of counter-argumentation. This means that managers when taking a decision should consider reasons why this decision might goes wrong. If the latter is difficult then they could ask from outsiders to express their opinion. For example in our case before approving the decision all the team members is recommended to list a number of reasons why the 1+1 reduction could not lead to increased profitability. In case that no one could think about any reason then, the Sales force should provide some input, since they have excellent sense of the market and its dynamics. Secondly, I would indicate the importance of feedback. The company is operating since 1970 while is consisted form experienced and new members. It is a great opportunity to exploit the companys knowledge by creating a case-study library that will host all the companys past successes and failures. Once a year we could organize the Sarantis-Training-Academy, in which managers will be assigned with cases, and they will be asked to provide their input for each strategy by assigning probabilities about their favored hypothesis. Afterwards, they will be informed about the real outcome and managers will be aware if they are overconfident or not. Finally from now on, I recommend that the Brand manager should be accountable for every decision. After every business plan meeting he will be responsible to present the proposals on the board of directors. The fact that he will have to present the ideas to seniors and experienced members might help him to enhance both self and group-criticism and reducing overconfidence. Conclusion The marketing team might has overestimated the probability of their scenario regarding the brands strategy of 2017, whereas this time has neglected also the normative approach. The excellent launch in combination with the fact that Vidal has experienced only successes might boosted the level of confidence. In order to improve the decision process this report has proposed 3 debias techniques (feedback, consider-the opposite and accountability) that according to the behavioral research seem to eliminate overconfidence. Part B Introduction Overconfidence might be proved a deleterious element for the decision making process since it does not only evokes people to overestimate their probabilities about the favored scenario but it also can cause catastrophic consequences. For example, in a study that examined the effect of overconfidence on newsvendors forecasts, showed that the higher the overconfidence the faster the profit loss (Crosson and Ren, 2009), while nowadays overconfidence seems to be a key driver for many start-up failures. This report is based on previous studies, and aims to underline the causes that triggered overconfidence to the Vidals marketing team while in parallel is focusing to provide a series of debiasing techniques in an effort to eliminate its effect. Overconfidence and Success In Vidals case I feel that the successful launch among with the wide recognition of the teams efforts, might have boosted their level of confidence. This relationship between success and overconfidence has lot of similarities with the case of Ducati. More specifically, in 2003 Ducati entered the motorcycle racing circuit MotoGP without having high expectations. During this effort, the team was focusing on data analysis and was gathering continuous feedback from the drivers for its improvement. At the end of the first year, Ducati surpassed every expectation and gathered the 2nd place, whereas for next year the team targeted the 1st place. This time the differentiated point was that the team stopped looking deeply into the data and receiving feedback. They considered that now their experience was enough in order to create an even better motorbike. Once a team member indicated you look into the data to understand whats going wrong and not why you are performing well. The next year Ducati did not covered expectations and performed even worse than the previous year. (Gino and Pisano,2011). Similarly, like on Ducatis case, it is remarkable how the Vidals marketing team after its successful launch didnt look deeply into the data, since so far it was a key principle prior taking any action. Additionally, the team seemed overconfident not only about their predictions but also about the products characteristics and performance. There are findings which show that success can inspire overconfidence. For example in a recent study, Hilary and Menzly (2016) found that analysts becoming overconfident when they achieve accurate forecasts as they tend to rely more on private information and to neglect markets reaction. As a consequence they perform less accurate predictions in the future. Additionally, when a trader achieves successful performance he becomes overconfident as he tends to revise his perceptional skills higher than the expected. The latter leads him not to use important information even though he might has a good database (Gervais and Odean, 2001). Walter and Ferrier (2004) stated also that success could generate overconfidence while it makes managers intolerant on new prospects. Since, success inspires overconfidence, it is important for managers to examine and understand the causes of success (Gino and Pisano,2011). Definition and Sources of Overconfidence Plous (1993,p.217) stated that no judgement decision is more prevalent and more catastrophic than overconfidence. In order to support this rationale in his book are some examples of the negative consequences of overconfidence. One of them is the destruction of Pearl Harbor, since Americans considered impossible the scenario for someone to conduct a proper attack in that location. Similarly, NASA, before the explosion of the space shuttle Challenger in 1986, had estimated that the risk of failure was 1/10,000. Overconfidence might has different forms. The first is related when someone overestimating the probability of the favored outcome to occur (Griffin and Varey, 1996), while the others are related when people consider themselves to be better than others, or when someone overestimates his skills or performance (overestimation) (MooreHealy,2007). I believe that in Vidals case both types are valid. This happens because the team might overestimated the probability to retain the amount of 2016 value sales by neglecting critical information, while they have excellent perception about the products potential. Russo and Shoemaker (1992) stated that a major cause of overconfidence is a persons difficulty to imagine all different outcomes that an event could have (availability bias).Due to this deficiency people become overconfident regarding their predictions as they have fewer paths to consider. In Vidals case the team could not envision different consequences of the cost reduction strategy, whereas the fact that the brand had only successes, might restricted the teams effort to recall or envision different scenarios. Another cause of overconfidence according to Russo and Shoemaker is anchoring. They stated that managers are anchored to one value or idea without making any adjustments, As a result they might generate sales forecasts before setting and adjusting their confidence rates. A prior study of Tversky and Khaleman (1974) confirmed this relationship by also stating that people tend to underestimate the risk of failure. The fact that cost reduction was the first thing that crossed the teams mind, might be due to an association based error. People are not used to think hard and usually trust the judgment that comes first into their mind (Kalheman,2003). Here, the first thing that the managers noticed was that Vidal had by far the highest promo intensity, while they might recalled from their semantic memory that cost reduction is a common and direct way to improve profitability. Arkes (1991) stated that people can think reasons to support their judgments much faster than the contradictory ones. The latter in combination with the fact that supportive reasons are greatly cued can cause overconfidence. Debiasing Techniques and Limitations Lichtenstein and Fischhoff (1980), stated that people are usually overconfident, but in an experiment that they conducted they found that feedback could improve participants calibration. Calibration is the skill to assign probabilities that equals the correct estimations (Sharp et.al, 1988). Performance feedback is one out of four types of feedback (outcome, process, environmental, performance) that are related with judgmental predictions, and can be divided into two subtypes (scoring-rule and calibration feedback)(Benson Onkal, 1992). In 1987, Arkes conducted an experiment between 2 groups in order to detect the effect of feedback. The 2nd group was informed that will have easy questions to answer while the 1st group was told that the questions were difficult. However, in reality both questions were difficult. After the first 5 questions the second group had higher confidence but same accuracy ratio with the first group. During the next sessions and after the second group received the discouraging feedback the members expressed less confidence and better accuracy. Similarly, in a recent study in which participated 57 students it was founded that performance feedback reduced overconfidence and lead to more accurate predictions (Al-Harthy 2016). Moreover, Richards (2015), examined as well the effect of feedback. This time the sample was consisted from 171 MBA students with 5 years of working experience. The participants were asked to assess themselves in 5 areas and afterwards to participate in a 3-hour assessment regarding their skills (problem solving, decision making, leadership, teamwork and planning).After the assessment, they participated in a pedagogy course in order to understand the essentials of behavior in relevance with the above skills. In parallel, they were being involved with many tasks such as: feedback and discussions with students. At the end of the semester the subjects repeated the same assessment. It was found that participants initially were overconfident in their self-assessment but after the feedback and the training cou rse their overconfidence level was reduced. Russo and Shoemaker(1992) pointed out the importance of feedback in companies since its a fast and cheap way to reduce overconfidence. He proposed that, companies should provide the employees with actual past cases where the result is known and to ask them to provide their guesses combined by their confidence level. With this method that was applied also successfully in Shell in order to train its junior gemologists, the employees learn to assess their level of confidence in relevance with their job and to identify if they are overconfident or not. However, all the above do not mean that feedback is always effective. Meikle et.al (2016) stated that this method is not suitable for people who have vested interest in seeing the world in a biased way. More specifically, a study in which participated football fans showed that feedback was not able to improve their accuracy on predictions since most of them still had preferences towards their favorite team (Massey et.al,2011).Additionally, the scoring-rule feedback (subtype of performance feedback) in which the forecaster gets rewards or penalties according to the outcome of his prediction doesnt show to reduce overconfidence (Fisher,1982). Finally, its important to indicate that this method is less efficient on overconfident CEOs, as they tend to show greater resistance on feedback which restricts them from improving calibration (Chen,et.al,2014). Feedback is useful for improving the decision making process since one of its characteristics is to warn that something, goes wrong or it might go wrong Thaler and Sunstein (2008). Kahneman (2003) stated that an outsiders view can provide more accurate predictions while it is less possible to provide unrealistic estimations. This happens because the outsiders view can provide safety against favored predictions that have less probabilities than the expected to happen (Kahneman Lovallo,1993). The outsiders can exploit knowledge from previous experiences by taking also into account the problems unique characteristics and data. As a result, since many people are overconfident, it is recommended for important decisions to ask either from an outsider to share his opinion or the decision maker to try to think like an outsider (Bazerman, 2013). This means that the decision maker should either think of reasons why his scenario might go wrong or to ask from others to provide counterarguments (Russo Shoemaker,1992). The latter might be proved helpful since considering the opposite scenario is capable to reduce the high levels of confidence (Soll et.al 2013).In a study that was conducted by Koriat et.al (1980), it was found that when subjects wrote down contradicted reasons and alternatives against their selected answer, they showed less confidence and better calibration. One way that might lead to this direction and to reduce overconfidence is accountability. The fact that the person is accountable for the decision, will lead him to enhance his pre-emptive self-criticism as he will have to present the decision and its rationale to others (Larrick, 2004).This mechanism will lead him to improve the decision quality and to assess more objectively the alternatives (Tetlock et.al, 1989). In a study that was conducted by Tetlock Kim(1987) the subjects participated in a person-perception process. The participants after receiving responses from each test taker they were asked to submit a short personality brief and to retake the test. This time they had to predict the responses of each test taker by assigning probabilities and level of confidence. It was found that subjects that they were told (before the test), that the researcher would like to have a detailed interview about their answers, to show more appropriate levels of confidence and better accuracy. Similarly in a recent study that participated 71 student students in a computer-based laboratory showed that accountability reduced significantly overconfidence (Jermias,2006). However, Brown (1999) stated that accountability might lead managers to take decisions that are most favorable to their peers, while the great amount of information could cause the lost-pilot effect if it will not being used properly (Larrick,2004). Accountability, does not seem to improve calibration in organizations in which the answer to the question what is a good decision is maddeningly subjective (e.g advertising agencies), whereas it is more effective in preventing rather reversing judgmental biases (Tetlock Kim 1987). The positive effect of overconfidence recommendations Contrary to all the above, overconfidence does not have solely negative effects. As Goethe wroteFor a man to achieve all that is demanded of him he must regard himself as greater than he is. Bernardo and Welch (2001) stated that overconfident entrepreneurs are more likely to explore their environment and to provide additional information to their social group while overconfident managers are more willing a)to take risk decisions b)to devote more effort and c) to motivate the team to accomplish its goal (Gervais et.al,2002). Finally, Taylor and Brown (1998) indicated that overconfident and optimistic people are more positive, happier and they have excellent ability for caring about others. Since overconfidence has also a positive side, Russo (1992) recommends that managers should distinguish between deciding and doing. This means that the decision process should be combined by realism and rationality, whereas the implementation of the decision should take advantage of the motivational benefits of overconfidence. As a result, its important for the decision makers to realize what they do know and what they dont, while the ones who are implementing the decision should indulge overconfidence when they think that will be proved beneficial for the performance. Conclusion Overconfidence when impacts the decision process could have negative consequences. However, it has some advantages that can be exploited from the ones who are implementing the decision. Since the decision process is critical, it is suggested to eliminate this effect by using three debiasing techniques. Performance feedback seems to improve calibration, whereas when people are thinking about why their decision might go wrong, they tend to reduce overconfidence. Finally, in special cases accountability seems to enhance self-criticism and to lead to a more rational way of thinking. References       Al-Harthy, I. (2016). Prediction Accuracy: The Role of Feedback in 6th Graders Recall Predictions. International Education Studies, 9(3), 212. doi:10.5539/ies.v9n3p212 Arkes, H. (1991). Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing. Psychological Bulletin, 110(3), 486-498. doi:10.1037//0033-2909.110.3.486 Arkes, H., Christensen, C., Lai, C., Blumer, C. (1987). Two methods of reducing overconfidence. Organizational Behavior And Human Decision Processes, 39(1), 133-144. doi:10.1016/0749-5978(87)90049-5 Bazerman, M. (2013). Becoming a first-class noticer. 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A comparative study of the ways in which Richard Cameron and Thomas :: English Literature

A comparative study of the ways in which Richard Cameron and Thomas Hardy apportion justice and sympathy towards the male characters. In 'Can't stand up for falling down' Cameron is looking at the boundaries of drama and braking them, most of the play consists of monologues, we are told of events by the female characters rather then, as is traditional in theatre, being shown them. Cameron uses this to form an intimacy between the audience and the female characters, allowing the audience to empathise with them, justify their actions and isolate the male characters. In contrast to this Hardy, in the novel, uses his authorial voice to try and manipulate the reader's sympathies and sense of justice whereas Cameron, although he tries to guide the audience, ultimately leaves them to decide upon their own opinions. The way the writers describe their characters form the basis of how they are perceived and influences whether the readers and audience want to bring them to justice or sympathise with them. Thomas Hardy is a very dramatic writer and conjures up scenes in the mind's eye of his readers. In the novel 'Tess of the d'Urbervilles' Hardy describes Alec and Angel's physical and personal characteristics making them more rounded characters and allowing the reader the ability to form complex emotions about them such as sympathy. Hardy uses the over spiritualised Angel to personify the average 'new' 1890's man. He rejects Christianity and embraces logic rather then the sensual. He therefore falls prey to his emotions. He sees Tess as a thing of beauty and idealises her, portraying in his mind and convincing himself that she is a perfect goddess; therefore he does not love her for who she really is. Angel's character is presented as being gentle with Tess and interested in her thoughts rather then just her looks, which is in direct contrast to Alec. All we had heard about Tess previously from the other characters in the novel is that "her fortune is in her face." but Tess wants to be accepted for herself and Angel encourages her without pushing her. "You sir can raise up dreams with your music and drive all such horrid fancies away." Hardy shows this as Tess's belief about Angel as her saviour. This description is in direct comparison to Hardy's original description of it as "dim and flattened" showing that whilst Tess is easily pleased by Angel, Hardy is not so; this encourages the readers into Hardy's own view. In 'Tess of the d'Urbervilles' Alec is presented as a moustache-curling, melodramatic, cardboard-cut-out villain. Hardy uses him to represent both the unjust differences between the treatment of women and stereotyping of women in what was perceived to be an new

John Steinbecks The Chrysanthemums and D.H. Lawrences The Odour of Ch

John Steinbeck's 'The Chrysanthemums' and D.H. Lawrence's 'The Odour of Chrysanthemums' Women in the 1900s were given little attention. John Steinbeck and D.H Lawrence however have chosen to base their short stories on a single woman character and around a type of flower, which is the chrysanthemum. Though written by male writers, both stories give an insight of the feelings and actions of a female character in that time period and how chrysanthemums can mean an entirely different obsession towards the two main characters. John Steinbeck's 'The Chrysanthemums' is about a tinker who confronts Elisa Allen while she was working on her prized chrysanthemums. Elisa was impressed of the tinker's freedom and his way of life. The tinker offers his service, repairing pots and pans, to Elisa, but she refuses at first. However, the tinker does not give up and tells Elisa about a customer that would be interested in her chrysanthemums. Elisa's attitude instantly changed and after her discussion with tinker she finds some work for the tinker to work on. Elisa's husband, Henry, takes her out later to the city for dinner. To her dismay she finds her lovely chrysanthemums dumped by the roadside by the tinker. D.H Lawrence, however, writes about Elizabeth Bates and her children who wait for the return of Walter, husband and father, who is late in his homecoming. Elizabeth has a brief meeting with her father. Not waiting any longer, Elizabeth and her children have dinner. Elizabeth puts her children to sleep and then goes out to look for her husband. It turns out that the husband had an accident and is now dead. Elizabeth's mother in law visits her and together they clean the dead Walter, while reminiscing the past.... ...not be offered to strangers. However, in 'Odour of Chrysanthemums,' Elizabeth realises she has never really known Walter and is ashamed to handle him. She experiences fear for she is aware that she has no control over her destiny and that she cannot escape death. Both stories do not have a happy ending, but instead deal with different aspects of life. 'The Chrysanthemums' with society and trust, whereas 'Odour of Chrysanthemums' with fate and death. I feel that John Steinbeck offers a better ending because it teaches us not to trust strangers with ease and gives us the message that we should be happy with what we have, not to envy others. Then again, the ending in 'Odour of chrysanthemums' is also true but I feel that it is too harsh. It is a fact that every creature will encounter death but death should not be Elizabeth's or anyone's 'ultimate master.'